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658126 Posts in 9262 Topics by 3396 Members Latest Member: - vlozan86 Most online today: 44 - most online ever: 494 (Jul 01, 2007, 02:59:53 PM)
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Author Topic: the continuing story of the 2008 political election  (Read 85751 times)
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elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #175 on: Feb 06, 2008, 12:35:34 AM »

Bloomberg is gonna siphon votes from Clinton? How's that work, exactly?


And yeah those national polls mean fuck all this far out; cf. Giuliani's commanding lead for most of last year
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guanajuato
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Posts: 1787


« Reply #176 on: Feb 06, 2008, 12:36:29 AM »

Yeah well even if I agreed with you, I don't have like a really deep well of hope w/r/t the decisions made by the Dems anymore.

And McCain ain't gonna win regardless of who he's up against

Head to head polls show McCain beating Clinton and losing to Obama in those hypothetical situations. Not that it means a whole lot at this point, but still.

Also, if Bloomberg enters the race, which I think I read that he would if Clinton were nominated but not if Obama was nominated, then he'd take votes away from Clinton and pretty much hand the thing to McCain.

i've heard the same thing! right on the money.
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Andrew_TSKS
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« Reply #177 on: Feb 06, 2008, 02:25:40 AM »

dbd you really think CA was gonna go your boy's way?

dude did you not see the polls over the last week?  It was close, some of them showing Obama up.  Really it's moot though, because delegates are decided county by county, so Obama could lose the state but still get almost as many delegates out of it.

Obama should dominate in Louisiana, hopefully with ND, MN, KS, CO going for him he'll do well in Washington State too.  Next Tuesday he should be able to pick up DC and MD - Maybe Virginia?  I dunno.

yeah, uh, if i have anything to say about it, he'll take virginia. AND I DO.

in all seriousness, i'm already on my friends' asses to come out and cast their votes for obama next tuesday.

and by the way, chuck todd on msnbc made the following prediction about delegates:

obama 841, clinton 837.

this was with clinton's people claiming 34 in cali, while obama's people said she'd get more like 15-20. todd went with the clinton people's 34, so if anything, he's being conservative, and these numbers make clinton look better than she's done.

of course, this was all ahead of new mexico's being called either way. i don't know if that's happened in the last hour or not.

my personal goal for tonight was to see obama take 12 states. and he took 13. i felt good about things. especially since hillary clinton didn't take any states that she wasn't expected to take, while obama took two he wasn't expected to take--missouri and connecticut. then he also got huge numbers in his favor in random states like idaho.

the big fucking surprise for me was huckabee winning half a dozen states. at this point, i'd say he and romney are fighting it out for second place, but that looks way better for huckabee, who's doing it with nearly no money, than it does for romney, who's dumping assloads of cash into a losing battle. msnbc's guy with the romney campaign said that they're seriously considering dropping out. huckabee, if you ask me, is cruising to be the joe lieberman to mccain's al gore.

back to the democrats--i see obama surging ahead over the next few weeks or so. hillary really can't compete with the level of grass-roots support he's getting right now. the move is in his direction. it's kind of like what would happen to her in the general--she'll retain her base and not much else. and obama is gathering support from all sorts of different groups, especially young people. much like HE will in the general.

i have hope going forward.
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Antero
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« Reply #178 on: Feb 06, 2008, 03:31:24 AM »

All I know for sure is that this is the first really interesting primary I've seen.
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davy
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Posts: 24822


« Reply #179 on: Feb 06, 2008, 10:17:01 AM »

man, mccain's people are wishing they hadn't shown his speech immediately before obama's. what a difference!

i feel really good about things, too. obama won my state (GA) handily, so i finally get to be proud of my electorate. what a novel feeling! no, he won't win georgia in the general, but i have a feeling that it's going to be a lot closer than it's been before in my lifetime.
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slow west vultures
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« Reply #180 on: Feb 06, 2008, 07:43:09 PM »

from my cursory watching of political analysis on the major networks and cable, i think the one person emerging that i can't stand is mary matalin.  jesus h christ.  i made the mistake of trying to build up my tolerance to the glenn beck show by watching him talk to her about john mccain is selling out the republican party.  it went something like this:    john mccain is an abomination on the border issue.  he's selling out our country on global warming, and get this - he has been known to engage in friendly conversation with lefty pinkos across the aisle.  its kind of crazy to see this kind of hate within the republican party itself. 

also:  as things progress, i think the people that will daily have the highest blood boiling frequency will be the hard core conservatives.  if john mccain and hillary clinton are the two presidential candidates, i'm pretty sure they're going to found their own country. 
« Last Edit: Feb 06, 2008, 07:45:09 PM by slow west vultures » Logged

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elpollodiablo
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« Reply #181 on: Feb 06, 2008, 07:55:39 PM »

Or just bitch and whinge about it for years, ala us

Though while all the overreacting liberals were going on and on about moving to Canada, I dunno where overreacting conservatives would go... Israel?
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Andrew_TSKS
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« Reply #182 on: Feb 06, 2008, 07:56:24 PM »

brazil maybe?
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elpollodiablo
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« Reply #183 on: Feb 06, 2008, 07:57:40 PM »

I know! Pakistan


No wait... Uhm... Iraq?
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Augo
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« Reply #184 on: Feb 06, 2008, 08:34:21 PM »

No they just shoot the president
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elpollodiablo
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« Reply #185 on: Feb 06, 2008, 09:11:11 PM »

Me pappy always said he wanted to believe Oswald acted alone cuz it proved one man can make a difference
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Antero
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« Reply #186 on: Feb 06, 2008, 10:14:33 PM »

Or just bitch and whinge about it for years, ala us

Though while all the overreacting liberals were going on and on about moving to Canada, I dunno where overreacting conservatives would go... Israel?
Argentina!

<_<

>_>
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Babar
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« Reply #187 on: Feb 07, 2008, 11:07:21 AM »

today i learned what superdelegates are. it's among the biggest bullshit i've heard in my opinion
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Andrew_TSKS
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« Reply #188 on: Feb 07, 2008, 11:48:15 AM »

yeah, it was instituted to prevent the american people from voting in a presidential candidate who will get killed in the general election. they decided to do this after the people picked george mcgovern in 1972 and nixon slaughtered him in the general. but of course that means, in practical terms, that if the people are pretty evenly divided between two party candidates, the decision will be made by political insiders, which no doubt favors the machine candidate.
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Andrew_TSKS
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« Reply #189 on: Feb 07, 2008, 01:12:03 PM »

Romney is done

highlight of the article:

Quote
"If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror," Romney told the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.

you heard it here first, folks: democrats winning = surrendering to terror.
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Jacob_Evans
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« Reply #190 on: Feb 07, 2008, 01:19:39 PM »

So...this will yield an unstoppable McCain/Huckabee juggernaut?
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FreddyKnuckles
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Posts: 11705


« Reply #191 on: Feb 07, 2008, 01:35:43 PM »

Its really too bad that Romney and Mccain butted heads.  I think they'd make a good pair.

Huck's not a terrible choice for a running mate, but he doesn't really have anything that McCain doesn't.  They share religious and social views.  Further, both men are considered 'weak' on immigration by the party. 

The more I think about it, not that its going to happen, Huckabee/McCain would be a lot more ideal for republicans than McCain/Huckabee--you'd have the awkward old man in the back, quieting concerns about Huckabee's foreign policy weakness.

McCain's Perceived Strengths
Likes Jesus
Doesn't like abortions
Doesn't like gays
Foreign Policy
National Security
Military

McCain's Perceived Weaknesses
Doesn't hate Mexicans
McCain-Feingold
Won't waterboard terrorists

Romney's Perceived Strengths
Likes Jesus
Doesn't like abortions
Doesn't like gays
Knows things about money
Strong business and economic background

Romney's Perceived Weaknesses
Thinks that his love of Jesus gets him his own planet
Liked abortions like 2 years ago
Liked gays like 2 years ago
untested on foreign policy

Huckabee's Perceived Strengths
Love Jebus
Hates fags
Hates abortions
Hates separation of church and state
Charismatic
Looks like a chubby kevin spacey
Chuck Norris

Huckabee's Perceived Weaknesses
Doesn't hate mexicans
Knows less about foreign policy than your grandpa
questioned national security credentials

Also, there is no one more qualified than the owner of a GOP ELECTION STRIKE FORCE t-shirt to talk about the perceptions of the gop base
« Last Edit: Feb 07, 2008, 01:54:04 PM by FreddyKnuckles » Logged

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Jacob_Evans
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« Reply #192 on: Feb 07, 2008, 01:41:57 PM »

Further, both men are considered 'weak' on immigration by the party. 

"I would hope that no matter who we are, or where we are from, that America should always be a place that opens its arms, opens it heart, opens its spirit to people who come because they want the best for their families."--Huckabee, re: immigration

Clearly, he's some kind of communist.
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Andrew_TSKS
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Posts: 39426


« Reply #193 on: Feb 07, 2008, 02:00:40 PM »

i don't really think you can compare mccain and huckabee on a religious basis--mccain's not a creationist.

that said, i think mccain-huckabee is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.
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elpollodiablo
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« Reply #194 on: Feb 07, 2008, 02:18:47 PM »

God I wish I could have listened to Rush today, he must be spitting mad
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Babar
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« Reply #195 on: Feb 07, 2008, 02:23:24 PM »

yeah, it was instituted to prevent the american people from voting in a presidential candidate who will get killed in the general election. they decided to do this after the people picked george mcgovern in 1972 and nixon slaughtered him in the general. but of course that means, in practical terms, that if the people are pretty evenly divided between two party candidates, the decision will be made by political insiders, which no doubt favors the machine candidate.

i had to read this three times to understand that you weren't meaning "killed" in the literal sense.
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Nick Ink
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« Reply #196 on: Feb 07, 2008, 02:26:57 PM »

Yes, me too. Most of what I know about Nixon comes from Hunter S Thompson's Great Shark Hunt, so I really couldn't be sure he hadn't literally slaughtered an opponent at some stage.
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elpollodiablo
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« Reply #197 on: Feb 07, 2008, 02:27:40 PM »

I'm sure he slaughtered more than one
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FreddyKnuckles
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« Reply #198 on: Feb 07, 2008, 02:28:22 PM »

Yeah probably

Republicans will have a shot if Obama is nominated if:
1. McCain picks a youthful (seeming) charismatic running mate
2. They seriously play up McCain's years of experience
3. They fight tooth and nail for the Hispanic vote
4.  McCain finds a way to play up the terror threat without guiliani-esque 911-centric madness
5.  They don't do anything to Piss Off The Far Right and make Ann Coulter say things on the air like "I would campaign for Hillary Clinton before I'd vote for John McCain" (she really said that).
6.  McCain can draw some of Obama's independent supporters.

Republicans will have a shot if Clinton is nominated if:
1.  They focus on the really stupid parts of HillaryCare (wage garnishing etc).
2.  McCain slides his policy and rhetoric as far down the scale to the left as it can go without pissing off the aforementioned scary right.
3.  etc


In response to Marc Jacobs or whatever the fuck your name is: Huckabee's fluffy rhetoric sounds nice, but does absolutely nothing to solve any of our problems.  His status quo position on immigration is seriously retarded.  Immigration woes?  secure the fucking border as best we can ( it would be nice to, you know, actually have a general idea of who is coming and going into and out of this country).  Part of securing our borders of course, is reducing the constant foot traffic from Mexico.  This can be achieved by reducing the demand for illegal labor by, you know, actually enforcing current labor laws and fining the fucking asses off of companies who hire illegal workers.  This makes sense both socially and economically, because it makes businesses less likely to hire illegal workers, and it raises the wages and living conditions of legal workers.  Finally, you make it way fucking easier to either naturalize or get a legal working status in this country. 

The problem with the status quo is that
1. Who is in our country?
2. companies get to ignore minimum wage and standard of living laws
3. A bunch of people have little or no legal rights (or responsibilities)

The solution
1. Make it easier to either work legally or naturalize so that there's no motive for doing it the illegal way
2. fine the shit out of companies who hire illegal workers. They'll have to hire legal ones and pay them a living wage.  This also opens the door to unionization and other workers rights etc.
3.  Secure the border as reasonably as possible--I'm not talking a giant fence or laser turrets.
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elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #199 on: Feb 07, 2008, 02:35:43 PM »

I've thought long and hard about the border issue, and it seems to me that amorphous borders are simply of side effect of late capitalism. I mean if we're going to encourage companies to maximize profits and consumers to maximize spending as part of our economic policy, then it stands to reason that cheap and readily available labor will be exploited to the fullest extent. The govt regulatory agencies are willing to turn their collective head because it would seriously wound our service economy to enforce labor laws that date from a time when American laborers actually labored (i.e. didn't just work retail or staff desks for slightly more than minimum wage). If we want to soldier on with our current economic model, it makes more sense to me to simply ignore the immigration issue entirely (natl security issues notwithstanding). I'd be interested to hear what Titus Richardicus has to say about this.

Just another case of the US making its bed and refusing like a petulant child to sleep in it


I mean really if the American people have been forced into accepting outsourcing as a fact of life, they should be able to accept this, too, it being simply the other side of that coin.
« Last Edit: Feb 07, 2008, 02:37:24 PM by elpollodiablo » Logged

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