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Author Topic: Dodd/Kucinich 08': Election Blu-Galoo  (Read 75460 times)
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FreddyKnuckles
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Posts: 11705


« on: Feb 15, 2008, 08:33:46 AM »

This is the new election thread.  Read it and weep. 

We were just discussing various shifts in momentum, and someone was saying that Obama won't be able to keep it up after Clintonator takes penn, ohio, tex. 

Its all in the numbers at this point folks.  In the states where Clintor is a shoe-in, she's got to win by an AVERAGE of 60% to defeat Barack hopechangehope Obama. 

superdelegates probably won't have the impact people think because they're just simply not going to come out of the convention with a different candidate than the country picked and risk exploding the democratic party.


I know I've said this before, but Republicans will stand out on street corners with signs if Hillary gets the nomination,  but if its Barack, most of them won't even go to the polls period. 


About the only scenario I can picture where John McCain is our nations next president, is a scenario in which Obama leads in delegates from the states and Clinton comes in and sweeps it away with super-delegates.  Disenfranchised Obamans will be less likely to swing their support to Clintor, and the Republican Machine with all its ire and vitriol will slowly swing into action like mother russia--slow, persistent, and overwhelming. 
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Quote from: Heathcote
I'm in with Greg Nog, IT'S FUCKING FAFFLE TIME!
elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #1 on: Feb 15, 2008, 08:47:58 AM »

See, that's another problem I have with the Obamamania: I'm perfectly content to vote for him should he take the nomination, but I get the feeling a lot of his supporters would rather pout and sit out the general than get behind HC and the party if it goes the other way. Maybe that's not the case; it's just the way it seems from where I'm sitting.
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think 'on the road.'
FreddyKnuckles
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Posts: 11705


« Reply #2 on: Feb 15, 2008, 08:56:34 AM »

Yeah, I think the democrati party regulars and some of the new-comers would probably swing to Hillary's side, but not some of the completely new voters he's drawn.  If he doesn't get it they'll be like 'oh fuck it then I ain't votin' again!'

But there's gonna be even LESS support transfer if HC only wins via superdelegates.  Dems are fucked for real if that happens.

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Quote from: Heathcote
I'm in with Greg Nog, IT'S FUCKING FAFFLE TIME!
elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #3 on: Feb 15, 2008, 09:02:10 AM »

I don't see it. Maybe we'll lose some of the kids that were only in it for Obama, but you really think most registered Dems are gonna be willing to turn it over to the Republicans for another four years just to... what? Protest the gross injustice of the system? Come on.
Maybe you're right, but if that's the case, it's a sad motherfucking state of affairs we have.
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think 'on the road.'
diesel_powered
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Posts: 19210


« Reply #4 on: Feb 15, 2008, 09:11:06 AM »

Shit, according to NPR last night, there are plenty of registered Republicans that are more willing to vote for Hillary than any Republican candidate.
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she had me at "let's make a sandwich"
elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #5 on: Feb 15, 2008, 09:20:02 AM »

Alright, that's just nuts and I've got no rejoinder. This primary's crazy; no one can be sure of anything at this point.
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think 'on the road.'
davy
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Posts: 24822


« Reply #6 on: Feb 15, 2008, 09:20:41 AM »

if the superdelegates overturn the pledged count and hillary gets the nomination, it's going to be a bigger issue than just "aw shucks, my candidate didn't win. i ain't voting for nobody."

it's going to be more along the lines of "wow, obama really inspired me and i finally felt the impulse to participate in u.s. politics and look what happened: it didn't change shit, and my vote meant nothing. the future of this country is still in the hands of a bunch of old rich white men congregating in smoke-filled rooms. fuck this."

which is maybe not the best reaction, but you can't blame 'em.
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elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #7 on: Feb 15, 2008, 09:26:53 AM »

Well... yeah, I can. Same way I could blame the Dean-iacs who threw up their hands and got all pouty after he lost the nomination. I don't see a whole lot of difference between the first and second statements in your post there.
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think 'on the road.'
ellaguru
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Posts: 5447


« Reply #8 on: Feb 15, 2008, 09:49:44 AM »

You don't see a difference between "losing" and "being disillusioned with the process"?
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FreddyKnuckles
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Posts: 11705


« Reply #9 on: Feb 15, 2008, 10:04:13 AM »

I'm not saying its right, I'm saying it will happen.  HC steals the election --> massive democratic party hemorrhaging
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Quote from: Heathcote
I'm in with Greg Nog, IT'S FUCKING FAFFLE TIME!
DCDave
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Posts: 10387


« Reply #10 on: Feb 15, 2008, 10:22:36 AM »

If Hilary was nominated it would turn me into a Republican, because at least when they fuck over the American people they're honest about it.
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But what the fuck do I know, I have a penis.
ellaguru
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Posts: 5447


« Reply #11 on: Feb 15, 2008, 10:38:34 AM »

If Hilary was nominated it would turn me into a Republican, because at least when they fuck over the American people they're honest about it.

Shit, according to NPR last night, there are plenty of registered Republicans that are more willing to vote for Hillary than any Republican candidate.

So, if Clinton is nominated and you turn Republican, will you vote for her anyway?
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I also engaged in a rigorous study of philosophy and religion...but cheerfulness kept creeping in.
DCDave
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Posts: 10387


« Reply #12 on: Feb 15, 2008, 10:40:05 AM »

Absolutely not.

I'd probably just vote on the down-ticket races and write-in for President.  It's not like DC is going to go Republican based on my vote.
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elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #13 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:17:26 AM »

See man that's the kind of petulant, "If I can't win, I'd rather not play" attitude that makes these elections so meaningless, in my view. If having HC--who, like her or not, is one of the most well-respected and successful figures in the Democratic party--win the primary is enough to put you off the party entirely, why the fuck were you even voting Democratic in the first place?
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think 'on the road.'
DCDave
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Posts: 10387


« Reply #14 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:22:59 AM »

I don't walk lock-step with the party.  I have never understood why Hillary Clinton is well-respected in the party other than to be contrarian to Republicans who dislike her.  She is a Machiavellian politician and she is bad at it.  She has no authentic center.  She compromises.  She vascillates.  She offers a completely meaningless vision of the future.

I vote for the candidate, not for the party.
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elpollodiablo
Registered user

Posts: 32624


« Reply #15 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:25:50 AM »

You'd honestly rather have a McCain than a Clinton White House? Cuz if that's what you're saying, I guess we should just stop talking about it.
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think 'on the road.'
DCDave
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Posts: 10387


« Reply #16 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:29:16 AM »

You'd honestly rather have a McCain than a Clinton White House? Cuz if that's what you're saying, I guess we should just stop talking about it.

I thought I'd made that pretty clear, but if McCain ends up equivocating on torture to try and win over hardline conservatives, I'd rather not vote at all.
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But what the fuck do I know, I have a penis.
elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #17 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:30:05 AM »

While I think you're being completely effing ridiculous, I do respect your resolve, I guess.
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think 'on the road.'
Thermofusion
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Posts: 10000


« Reply #18 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:35:34 AM »

See man that's the kind of petulant, "If I can't win, I'd rather not play" attitude that makes these elections so meaningless, in my view. If having HC--who, like her or not, is one of the most well-respected and successful figures in the Democratic party--win the primary is enough to put you off the party entirely, why the fuck were you even voting Democratic in the first place?

I have to basically agree here.

As much as I dislike Clinton, I'd vote for her 1,000 times over before I'd even consider voting for McCain.  I understand that people want to stick to their principles.  And I understand that they can find ways to justify not voting based on their principles...but, dammit, who'd you rather have appointing new justices to a Supreme Court that's already teetering on the edge of being conservative-majority (some could easily argue it's already there, but that's another story)...a fellow liberal who you don't agree with on 100% of the issues, or an ancient Republican who's drifted far, far away from the center in an alarmingly short amount of time?  Guess what...if McCain gets elected and Justice Stevens retires or kicks the bucket?  Well, we are ALL fucked, in a much more permanent way than any lame neocon prez could ever fuck us over, and your somewhat selfish, principles-based decision not to vote for your party's candidate because you didn't like Clinton would be partially to blame.

This isn't to say I don't, too, respect Dave's stick-to-his-guns attitude.  I really do, and he's entitled to it, even if I disagree in this instance.  But this election isn't entirely about principles, people.  This election is about wrestling the soul of the country out of the hands of a Republican party that has mutated itself into something far different and more horrifying than it used to be.  The risk of a couple more fundie nutjobs getting appointed to SCOTUS and then ripping all of your rights to shreds oughtta be enough to get you to the voting booth in November.  But that's just my opinion, man.
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DCDave
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Posts: 10387


« Reply #19 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:39:34 AM »

Thermo, if I were in a state where my vote counted, I would agree.  I am not.  I live in the District of Columbia.  We have electors, yes, but they will forever and ever, be Democratic.  Knowing that, I would rather not be complicit with the crimes against humanity that Hillary Clinton has made it clear that she intends to allow to continue on her watch.
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Andrew_TSKS
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Posts: 39426


« Reply #20 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:41:01 AM »

yeah, you know, i would have agreed with dave a couple weeks ago re: mccain's relative honesty, because i always felt like i could at least trust mccain, but this torture flip-flop has critically damaged his credibility in my eyes. so now i'm thinking that the republican presidential race just turns everyone into a lowdown greedy asshole.

and miles, i would still vote for hillary clinton, but it would definitely be a "lesser of two evils" vote, as it would be for a lot of people. dave's criticisms of her are dead-on. machiavellian is a great one-word description of her. i actually believe in barack obama. i think he will have trouble getting some of the things he wants to do done, but i believe he'll make an honest attempt at them, and i think some of it will get done in the end. and god damn it, i WANT to for once in my life vote for a candidate i believe in! (well, for president--i believed in jim webb in 2006, and by the way that dude has NOT let me down)

i wouldn't swing republican or refuse to vote if hillary clinton won, but i can understand why a lot of people would.

oh, and by the way--not only is davy right, the party knows davy is right, and it's very clear that the superdelegates will, in the end, swing to whoever wins the popular vote where the primaries are concerned.

and it's going to be barack obama. thank god.
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DCDave
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Posts: 10387


« Reply #21 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:41:58 AM »

Jim Webb is awesome.  I love how he basically tells Bush to go fuck himself at every opportunity.
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elpollodiablo
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Posts: 32624


« Reply #22 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:45:12 AM »

Jim Webb is pretty hardcore. It he still wearing his son's combat boots around? I thought that was great.


Like I said, I respect what you guys are saying, but I completely disagree with you. HC would not be bad for this country. McCain would be a fucking nightmare.

And Andrew I understand you're excited to call this thing for your boy, but it ain't over yet.
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think 'on the road.'
Thermofusion
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Posts: 10000


« Reply #23 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:46:29 AM »

Thermo, if I were in a state where my vote counted, I would agree.  I am not.  I live in the District of Columbia.  We have electors, yes, but they will forever and ever, be Democratic.  Knowing that, I would rather not be complicit with the crimes against humanity that Hillary Clinton has made it clear that she intends to allow to continue on her watch.

I wasn't sure if you were actually in the District or in NoVa or something.  Yeah, in your case, definitely just stick to principles. 

and it's going to be barack obama. thank god.

QFT.

Although Clinton ain't gonna go down easy, and if there's anyone unprincipled enough to pull out some sketchy shit to maintain a shot at the presidency, God knows it's her. 

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Andrew_TSKS
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Posts: 39426


« Reply #24 on: Feb 15, 2008, 11:47:43 AM »

And Andrew I understand you're excited to call this thing for your boy, but it ain't over yet.

no, i know, i'm just trying to be optimistic for once in my life. also, i really do have a gut feeling on this one, that this is the way things are going. we'll see, though, you're right. if there's one thing you can't do in american politics, it's count out the clintons.
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I just want to be myself and I want you to love me for who I am.
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