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Author Topic: You can touch a Hot Stove, just not for very long (Baseball thread)  (Read 18983 times)
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El_Josharino
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« on: Nov 01, 2011, 12:29:52 AM »

Old thread at 33 pages, the Series ending and Hot Stove talk and postseason awards starting seemed like a good point for a new thread.

In my dynasty fantasy league, arbitration voting just ended and I lost my $12 Desmond Jennings. Pretty bummed about that.

Anyone got MVP/Cy/ROY predictions?
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #1 on: Nov 01, 2011, 12:36:15 AM »

NL MVP - Matt Kemp. Maybe Ryan Braun, but I think him and Prince cancel each other out a little bit.
NL Cy - Clayton Kershaw. It'll be close between him and Halladay
NL ROY - Craig Kimbrel. The Braves should have 3 dudes in the top 6. Kimbrel, Beachy, Freeman with Espinosa and Ramos from Washington and Worely from Philly in there. Bright futures all around in the NL East.
AL MVP - Jose Bautista. All the Red Sox and Yankees cancel each other out. Verlander would be my #2 pick.
AL Cy - Verlander. Duh.
AL ROY - complete toss-up. I think Pineda should get it, but it's going to be pick-one-from-a-hat of Pineda, Hosmer, Jennings, Hellickson, Lawrie, Walden, and probably a couple I'm forgetting. Kipnis maybe in there too.
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dumbfish
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« Reply #2 on: Nov 01, 2011, 04:15:56 PM »

Interesting that the Dodgers have the MVP and Cy Young on your ballot, but finished eight games out of the postseason. Hard to imagine that happening in football or basketball. Highlights the differences between baseball and the other big sports.
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #3 on: Nov 01, 2011, 04:40:14 PM »

Yeah, I kinda thought about that too, and saw a couple articles that touched on it toward the end of the season, how do you define "value" and so on, blah blah blah. I can see the reasoning behind the MVP going to a player from a successful team, but Kemp nearly pulled a 40/40 season, which would have been only the 5th 40/40 ever, and nearly earned the first Triple Crown since what, '67 or whenever Yaz did it? It's hard to argue with offense like that, especially considering there's really nobody in the Dodgers lineup to prevent pitchers from working around him. Fangraphs also tabs him with 8.7 WAR which is first in the NL. How bad would the Dodgers have been without him?
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #4 on: Nov 01, 2011, 04:45:40 PM »

The Cy is kind of a toss-up between Kershaw, Halladay, and Lee. Halladay walked fewer and gave up fewer home runs, Kershaw struck out more and crossed the 20-win threshold that seems to give the actual voters great big pitcher boners. Halladay was probably better, but Kershaw has sexier numbers while being only very slightly less-good overall. Lee pretty much splits the difference and will probably get a ton of 2nd place votes. Cy Young does seem to be the place where team performance doesn't matter (see: Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke)
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dumbfish
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« Reply #5 on: Nov 01, 2011, 05:01:02 PM »

Points to the fact that baseball is a series of one-on-one matchups, so the suckiness around Kershaw and Kemp couldn't drag them down much. By contrast, I'm willing to bet Aaron Rodgers would look Cutlerish or worse (concussed and on injured reserve) if he had to play behind the Bears' line.
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #6 on: Nov 01, 2011, 05:29:40 PM »

Ah, yeah, that's true. The thing that's interesting to me is that with the one-in-one nature of baseball, the gaining/losing of superstar players seems to have little effect on the overall success of the team. For example, the Colts minus Peyton Manning, Arizona Cards minus Kurt Warner, Cavs minus Lebron vs. say the Mariners of 2000 who lost Griffey Jr and went from 79 to 91 wins, then lost A-Rod after 2000 and went from 91 to 116 wins. The Blue Jays had Jose Bautista break out into a monster the last 2 years, and went from 75 to 85 to 81 wins, and from 4th to 4th and then 4th in the division, whereas the Detroit Lions with Matt Stafford went from 6-10 last year to 6-2 so far this year. Remove CJ Wilson and Josh Hamilton from the Rangers, and they're going to hang on much better than the Packers would should you remove Rodgers and Jennings.
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dumbfish
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« Reply #7 on: Nov 01, 2011, 05:38:04 PM »

So: baseball's an individual sport but each individual makes a pretty small impact. I'd guess basketball is the opposite, a team sport with much larger per-individual impacts, and football's in-between. (I gotta believe the Colts were falling off this year Peyton or no Peyton. I can't believe he's worth 10 wins all by himself.)
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #8 on: Nov 01, 2011, 05:49:30 PM »

Heh. Maybe you can measure the relationship between how much impact an individual makes and how many players on each team you need to play the game? Basketball can be 1 on 1, no biggie. Each individual obviously has a huge impact. Football doesn't really work 1 on 1 (but lord knows Augo and I tried when we were little). 2 on 2 can work, though. And baseball... well, I've played 4 on 4 baseball before, but you'd better learn to cover a lot of ground on defense...
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #9 on: Nov 01, 2011, 11:25:10 PM »

Kemp winning a Gold Glove however, is laughable.
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #10 on: Nov 08, 2011, 09:49:55 PM »

Oh man, rumor has it the Phillies are about to give closer Ryan Madson 4 years/44 mil with a 13 mil option on a 5th year. That shit is hilarious. What do the Phillies plan on doing with all these albatross contracts come 2014?
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dumbfish
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« Reply #11 on: Nov 09, 2011, 11:21:05 AM »

Roto players learned not to pay for saves at least a decade ago. How has that wisdom not filtered up by now?
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Thermofusion
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« Reply #12 on: Nov 09, 2011, 11:29:09 AM »

Yeah I don't entirely understand the wisdom behind throwing that much cash at a dedicated closer. You'd use that cash more constructively by trying to improve the overall quality of your bullpen.
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #13 on: Nov 09, 2011, 05:50:34 PM »

Yeah, especially considering how infrequently that guy is actually going to be used in a high-leverage situation.
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #14 on: Nov 09, 2011, 11:28:40 PM »

Holy shit Wilson Ramos was kidnapped today in Venezuela. Hope he's found quickly and safely.
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Thermofusion
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« Reply #15 on: Nov 10, 2011, 09:50:43 AM »

I was just reading about that. Crazy.

Also, I guess I'm late on this but I just heard the Ron Washington pep talk thing. Man, I don't care what anyone else says, I think I love that guy.
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #16 on: Nov 11, 2011, 08:32:58 AM »

Apparently they don't think Ramos's life is in danger because the kidnappers know how much money they'll be able to get for him, that they won't be able to get if they kill him. But the fact that this logic exists is terrifying.
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #17 on: Nov 11, 2011, 01:14:37 PM »

Haha, the Marlins are adorable right now, apparently they're interested in every single free agent. They're claiming interest in Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Beltran, CJ Wilson, and Yoenis Cespedes (the hottest Cuban import since Aroldis Chapman, check out his promo video for some surreal amusement) apparently they're meeting with Albert Pujols this afternoon and have plans to meet with Prince Fielder.
Prediction: They'll feign interest in a bunch of high-dollar dudes to make themselves look interesting, make a few lowball offers that nobody will take but at least make it look like they tried to spend money, and end up signing Juan Pierre to a 1 year deal. Loria is such a cheap dirtbag.
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Thermofusion
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« Reply #18 on: Nov 11, 2011, 01:20:04 PM »

Everybody is interested in Yoenis Cespedes though, even the Pirates.

Yeah I can't see the Marlins actually spending any fucking money but, again, I think the Marlins are gonna be one of my favorite teams starting next year. That flamboyant home-run art installation seals it.
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Thermofusion
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« Reply #19 on: Nov 11, 2011, 01:25:15 PM »

Yoenis Cespedes (the hottest Cuban import since Aroldis Chapman, check out his promo video for some surreal amusement)

That video deserves to be linked here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kREZHmOR1bg

Doing whatever it takes to be the BEST!!!
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #20 on: Nov 11, 2011, 01:26:01 PM »

Yeah, probably just gonna call that home run thing the Stanton Station.
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #21 on: Nov 11, 2011, 02:49:23 PM »

Oh man, rumor has it the Phillies are about to give closer Ryan Madson 4 years/44 mil with a 13 mil option on a 5th year. That shit is hilarious. What do the Phillies plan on doing with all these albatross contracts come 2014?

Haha, well the Madson thing apparently fell through a couple days ago, but now it looks like the Phightin's are going to ink Jonathan Papelbon to 4 years/50ish mil. Same jokes apply.
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Thermofusion
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« Reply #22 on: Nov 11, 2011, 02:50:56 PM »

That's ridiculous!
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El_Josharino
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« Reply #23 on: Nov 11, 2011, 03:05:48 PM »

Well, okay, I just looked at Pap's numbers, and he was really good last year and he's moving from the AL to the NL, which should give him a boost, and the BoSox paid him 12 mil last year, but man, relief pitchers are such a fickle beast.
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Lucy
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« Reply #24 on: Nov 11, 2011, 03:54:43 PM »

Pap will be missed, but yeah, that's an intense contract!
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